基于情景的中国1951-2010年极端高温灾害的危险性分析(英文)     

尹占娥  殷杰  张校玮 《地理学报(英文版)》2013,23(3):436-446

China is physically and socio-economically susceptible to global warming-derived high temperature extremes because of its vast area and high urban population density. This article presents a scenario-based analysis method for high temperature extremes aimed at illustrating the latter’s hazardous potential and exposure across China. Based on probability analysis, high temperature extreme scenarios with return periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years were designed, with a high temperature hazard index calculated by integrating two differentially-weighted extreme temperature indices (maximum temperature and high temperature days). To perform the exposure analysis, a land use map was employed to determine the spatial distribution of susceptible human activities under the different scenarios. The results indicate that there are two heat-prone regions and a sub-hotspot occupying a relatively small land area. However, the societal and economic consequences of such an environmental impact upon the North China Plain and middle/lower Yangtze River Basin would be substantial due to the concentration of human activities in these areas.  相似文献   

将灾害风险管理和适应气候变化纳入可持续发展   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

郑艳 《气候变化研究进展》2012,8(2):103-109

IPCC发布的《管理极端事件和灾害风险,推进气候变化适应》特别报告(SREX)指出,极端事件和灾害的影响很大程度上取决于社会经济系统的风险暴露程度及其脆弱性特征。这意味着,不合理的发展过程将加剧灾害风险及其损失,另一方面,采取积极的减灾和适应行动,能够减小灾害风险并促进社会、经济、环境的可持续发展。SREX报告有助于启发决策者与社会公众,为充满不确定风险的未来进行合理规划,包括关注未来因人口和社会财富增长导致的暴露度和脆弱性增加,在国家和部门层面整合适应、减灾与发展政策,利用多种政策工具加强决策的科学性和灵活性,发挥不同主体在适应治理与灾害风险管理中的作用等等。  相似文献   

近40年我国极端温度变化趋势和季节特征   总被引：16，自引：4，他引：12       下载免费PDF全文

杨萍  刘伟东  王启光  熊开国  侯威 《应用气象学报》2010,21(1):29-36

利用1961—2000年我国194个测站逐日最高温度和最低温度器测资料,结合具有实际意义的季节极端温度指数,分析了我国近40年极端温度事件的年变化趋势和季节特征。对年极端气候指数的研究表明:绝对阈值定义的冷暖指数由于无法考虑南北气候差异,其结果不理想。百分比阈值所得的冷暖指数中,冷日指数和暖日指数具有不对称性,冷夜指数和暖夜指数具有较强的对称性。对季节极端温度指数研究表明:冬季极端冷指数变化趋势最为明显,夏季极端暖指数的变化趋势次之,春、秋两季极端冷指数的变化趋势不明显;年和季节尺度的极端冷暖指数均反映出增暖趋势。  相似文献   

Empirical statistical characterization and regionalization of amplitude–duration–frequency curves for extreme peak flows in the Lake Victoria Basin,East Africa     

Charles Onyutha  Patrick Willems 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):997-1012

Abstract

This paper focuses on a regionalization attempt to partly solve data limitation problems in statistical analysis of high flows to derive discharge–duration–frequency (QDF) relationships. The analysis is based on 24 selected catchments in the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) in East Africa. Characteristics of the theoretical QDF relationships were parameterized to capture their slopes of extreme value distributions (evd), tail behaviour and scaling measures. To enable QDF estimates to be obtained for ungauged catchments, interdependence relationships between the QDF parameters were identified, and regional regression models were developed to explain the regional difference in these parameters from physiographic characteristics. In validation of the regression models, from the lowest (5 years) to the highest (25 years) return periods considered, the percentage bias in the QDF estimates ranged from –2% for the 5-year return period to 27% for 25-year return period.